Description
Spot gold fell below $4,000 an ounce on Nov. 11, a day after a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation report, and is now lower than it was a year ago. Gary Wagner of TheGoldForecast.com was targeting about $5,000 by year-end a month ago. He now sees $4,200 to $4,400 at best, and only if support holds.
Wagner says gold has "most likely weathered this brutal correction," but he is watching $3,884. A break below that level puts his numbers in question, he says, with no strong support until about $3,500, a price he does not expect to see. He does not expect a new record high before late 2027 or 2028.
He also explains why computer-driven funds account for a large share of the selling while central banks bought 42% more gold last quarter, why he thinks the Federal Reserve's December rate hike is already in the price, and why he calls $50 a stronger floor for silver than it has ever been. He sees silver near $55 by year-end and says it could outperform gold next year.
This interview was recorded on Nov. 11, 2026.
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CHAPTERS
00:00 Gold Breaks Below $4,000
01:46 Weekly Chart: Support and a Lower Year-End Target
03:49 Daily Chart: Is Gold's Correction Over?
05:32 If $3,884 Breaks, and the Elliott Wave Path to 2028
08:08 The Dollar's Pull on Gold
10:01 Is the Dollar Breaking Out?
11:16 Gold Below the 200-Day Moving Average
13:26 Algos Sell, Central Banks Buy
16:28 The 2015 Fed Hike That Came Before a Gold Rally
19:20 Is the December Rate Hike Already Priced In?
21:02 Is $50 Silver's New Floor?
25:45 If $50 Fails: Silver's Next Support
26:58 Year-End Targets for Gold and Silver
29:05 Where to Follow Gary Wagner
#gold #silver #GaryWagner
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