Description
FOMC meeting today: the Fed is expected to hold, with a December rate hike next. Plus a real inflation take and a Bitcoin trend line read.
On FOMC day, this live commentary covers what the speaker expects from the Fed rate decision. His call is that the Fed keeps rates where they are today, then hikes in December, and that markets start pricing in that December rate hike shortly after this meeting. He puts the chance of a hike today at about 10% and says the Fed will not deliver a shock.
He then looks at the data behind that view. The official inflation 3.7% print for September is nearly double the Fed's 2% target and the highest since May, as read out in the video. He calls that figure understated and argues that real inflation is closer to 6% or higher, and then around 11 to 12% once you account for compounding. He also reads out Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers (producer prices up 6.3% from a year ago), talks about the odds of an October hike jumping and then dropping, and explains forward guidance, the Fed's habit of telegraphing its moves in advance. These are his opinions and calls, not official forecasts.
The second half is a Bitcoin chart read with no indicators. Bulls would not give $79,000 Bitcoin, price broke out of a consolidation zone, and the Bitcoin trend line he draws points to $82,000 and then a Bitcoin $83,000 target, with a possible rejection and roll over. He explains why steep trend lines are close to useless and why the FOMC meeting held the market back earlier in the week.
CHAPTERS
0:00 FOMC meeting today: hold now, hike in December
0:46 Hike odds, hot PPI and the mystery drop
1:39 Inflation, PPI and why the Fed won't shock the market
2:31 Bitcoin chart read: no indicators, just simple patterns
3:18 Bitcoin breakout from consolidation before the FOMC
4:29 Next target around $82,000 and the trend line
5:38 Trend line break and the $83,000 target
6:22 FOMC recap: December hike call and inflation numbers
7:22 Fed pause, forward guidance and market reaction
8:34 Real inflation 11-12% and why percentages compound
9:20 Why the December FOMC will be streamed
WHAT YOU WILL LEARN
- What the speaker expects from the FOMC meeting today and why he thinks a December rate hike is coming
- Why he thinks markets will start pricing in a December hike shortly after this meeting
- How he gets from the official inflation 3.7% print to a real inflation figure of 11 to 12%, and why he says percentages compound
- What forward guidance is and why it matters for how markets read the Fed
- How he reads a Bitcoin trend line with no indicators, with $82,000 and a Bitcoin $83,000 target as the next levels
QUICK ANSWERS
What will the Fed do at the FOMC meeting today? In the speaker's view the Fed holds rates today. He puts the chance of a hike at about 10% and expects a rate hike in December instead.
Why does he expect a December rate hike? He says inflation is still hot, PPI is elevated and the Fed will have to raise rates. He also says the Fed hiked in September and is expected to pause today.
Is real inflation really 11 to 12%? That is his opinion. The official September figure he cites is 3.7%, and he argues the true rate is much higher and compounds every year. The ShadowStats alternate inflation link below describes alternate methods in general terms but does not confirm his number.
What is the Bitcoin trend line setup? After a breakout above the mid trend line, he sees $82,000 and then Bitcoin $83,000 as the next targets. He says price could get rejected there and roll over.
What is forward guidance? He describes it as the Fed telegraphing its moves in advance, a policy he links to the period around the 2008 crisis, and he argues it is now ending.
LINKS
Polymarket Fed rates dashboard (for Polymarket Fed odds): https://polymarket.com/dashboards/fed-rates
ShadowStats alternate inflation charts: https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
Not financial advice. This is opinion and market commentary, and Bitcoin and crypto trading carry a high risk of loss. Do your own research.
#FOMC #FedRateDecision #Bitcoin #Inflation